TULSA, Okla. — Is snow gonna fall on Tulsa this week?
Social media posts from across Green Country are posting snow forecasts, predictions, and worst-case scenarios. It's riling up users and making most question what can they really expect and when.
Turns out, answering that question can be complicated.
Why?
Chief Meteorologist Michael Seger posted on his own Facebook page to highlight some of the factors that go into snow forecasting and why forecasts can change so much.
A pattern can emerge 7-10 days out that could signal potential for snow. This is when the meteorologists start watching, but probably don't say anything to viewers yet.
As the system gets closer to 5-7 days out trends can emerge. Meteorologists will analyze these and start giving everyone a heads up we may see snow.
This post from Chief Meteorologist Michael Seger illustrates this:
By 3-5 days out, it's clear if something is gonna fall, and the forecast starts anticipating timing and the type of precipitation— snow, ice, rain, or a mix?
By the time the system is 1-3 days out, meteorologists can start forecasting details— when it's gonna fall, where, and how much.
What's gonna happen this week?
Green Country is at the 3-5 days out part of the forecast.
Here's what Chief Meteorologist Michael Seger is saying, still a lot of things impacting what happens:
FRIDAY: A chance of accumulating snow Friday, which may briefly start as a light rain/mix. Too early to draw accumulation maps, but it may be enough to be impactful to travel, depending on the track and where things line up. We'll continue to fine-tune the details over the next couple of days.
SATURDAY: Track is key here as well, but confidence is a little lower as we are seeing a wider range of solutions from all the snow and ice staying south of us to us getting more snow. Both scenarios are in play.
BITTER COLD: Expect prolonged periods of below-freezing temperatures, with some single digits possible. If we do see higher snowfall amounts the duration of the freeze will be longer and the temperatures will likely be colder. Right now, our current forecast has temps dropping below freezing on Friday and not climbing above freezing until Monday, but this may be adjusted depending on potential snowfall amounts.
WHAT TO DO: Right now, don't cancel any plans, but be prepared to adjust travel plans to leave early or cancel if confidence increases.
POSSIBLE LIMITATIONS: As I look at the data, I'm seeing some extremely dry air being pulled into the system from the northeast. This could limit how much snow falls and mean a sharper cut-off from very little snow to higher snow totals.
What can you do?
- Be prepared, download the 2 News Oklahoma app for updates from our meteorologists.
- Sign up for alerts on any weather watches, warnings, or important information released.
- Plan ahead. Make sure you're stocked up on anything you may need if we get a lot of snow, so you can avoid trips and stay warm and safe.
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