TULSA, Okla. — Is snow gonna fall on Tulsa this week?
Social media posts from across Green Country are posting snow forecasts, predictions, and worst-case scenarios. The National Weather Service issued a Winter Storm Watch for all of Eastern Oklahoma, effective Friday.
It's riling up users and making most question what can they really expect and when.
Turns out, answering that question can be complicated.
Why?
Chief Meteorologist Michael Seger posted on his own Facebook page to highlight some of the factors that go into snow forecasting and why forecasts can change so much.
A pattern can emerge 7-10 days out that could signal potential for snow. This is when the meteorologists start watching, but probably don't say anything to viewers yet.
As the system gets closer to 5-7 days out trends can emerge. Meteorologists will analyze these and start giving everyone a heads up we may see snow.
This post from Chief Meteorologist Michael Seger illustrates this:
By 3-5 days out, it's clear if something is gonna fall, and the forecast starts anticipating timing and the type of precipitation— snow, ice, rain, or a mix?
By the time the system is 1-3 days out, meteorologists can start forecasting details— when it's gonna fall, where, and how much.
What's gonna happen this week?
Green Country is at the 3-5 days out part of the forecast.
Tuesday night, Chief Meteorologist Michael Seger said confidence is increasing on snowfall in Green Country.
CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING, WITH HIGHEST CONFIDENCE SOUTH:
TIMING: May briefly start as a light rain/mix near/south of I-40, but this will be a snow event. Timing of when it starts is still uncertain with dry air in place. Some data starts the snow by midday Friday, other data holds it off until Friday evening. There will be a lot of dry air in place the snow will fall through initially, likely drying out before it hits the ground. Eventually as the process continues, the dry air should increase in humidity eventually allowing the snow to reach the ground. My best estimate is that it will start sometime Friday afternoon/evening.
SATURDAY: Snow continues across the southern half to 2/3 of our forecast area with the highest odds near and south of I-44. Some data keeps northern areas dry with dry air moving in with a northeast breeze, but other data does not. This will be a key factor in snowfall amounts across Green Country. Some snow may linger into Sunday morning, but we should clear out quickly.
AMOUNTS: Please keep in mind this is a broad-brush and will likely be adjusted as we are three days out. Not chiseled in stone, but current thinking is a 2"-6" swath closer to the Oklahoma and Kansas line. Dry air has me worried here, possibly limiting higher potential despite higher model output. Not a guarantee the dry air will win the battle, but why I have a conservative lower potential.
HWY 412, including Tulsa, 4" to 8" of snow. Close enough to the dry air that we could be on the lower end of this scale, but if the dry air does not make it that far south, we could easily be in the upper part of that range. We'll adjust again tomorrow.
I-40 and south has the highest potential for a 6" to 12" snowfall. Localized spots over a foot could be possible. A potentially paralyzing snowfall on I-40 and south if these higher-end totals are indeed met. Be prepared for multiple days at home if you live in areas where snowplowing is not as accessible.
BITTER COLD: Expect a long duration of below freezing temperatures, with some single digit temps and below 0 wind chills. If we do see higher snowfall amounts the duration of the freeze will be longer and the temperatures will likely be colder. Right now our current forecast has temps dropping below freezing Friday and not climbing above freezing until Tuesday. Once again, this may be adjusted depending on potential snowfall amounts.
WHAT TO DO: If travelling, make plans to leave early if you can. Understand that it is possible some plans will need to be cancelled. Prepare for a long duration of below freezing temperatures. Make preps around your house, business, and farms for a long duration of below freezing temps and at times dangerous cold and wind chills.
POSSIBLE LIMITATIONS: Mentioned above, but dry air has the potential to keep this system from reaching its full potential. Dew points dropping into the single digits and perhaps even below zero. If the dry air wins, amounts will be lighter, especially for those of you to the north. Dry air could also mean a sharper north to south gradient / cut-off from very little snow to higher snow totals.
What can you do?
- Be prepared, download the 2 News Oklahoma app for updates from our meteorologists.
- Sign up for alerts on any weather watches, warnings, or important information released.
- Plan ahead. Make sure you're stocked up on anything you may need if we get a lot of snow, so you can avoid trips and stay warm and safe.
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