Warm and Windy End to September

TULSA, OKLA — Much of Wednesday will be mostly cloudy, warm and windy, with rain holding off until late in the day.

Temperatures will climb into the upper 80s, with south winds gusting between 20 and 30 mph.

As the day goes on, moisture will continue to increase across the region. That sets the stage for storms to develop across western Oklahoma and move east into Green Country by Wednesday evening.

While instability will be limited, there will still be a low-end severe weather threat. The primary concern will be locally damaging wind gusts, although a brief tornado cannot be completely ruled out.

The bigger concern will be heavy rain.

A deep supply of tropical moisture will fuel some very heavy downpours, with rainfall rates potentially reaching 1 to 2 inches per hour in the strongest storms. That could lead to localized flash flooding, especially where storms repeatedly move over the same areas.

Thursday looks to be the wettest day for much of the area.

Showers and thunderstorms will be ongoing Thursday morning, with additional rounds of rain and storms continuing through the day. The heaviest activity will gradually shift toward southeast Oklahoma and western Arkansas Thursday afternoon and evening.

The threats remain similar including heavy rain and localized flooding, locally strong to damaging wind gusts and a limited risk of a brief tornado.

Temperatures will be much cooler Thursday, with widespread cloud cover keeping highs mainly in the 70s.

A cold front will push through the region Thursday night into Friday, bringing a noticeable change in temperatures.

Showers will remain possible Friday as the front moves through, but the heaviest rain should gradually shift east and southeast.

By Friday afternoon, temperatures may only reach the lower 70s, with a brisk north wind adding to the fall-like feel.

How much rain?

This is a multi-day rain event, with widespread rainfall totals of roughly 1 to 4 inches expected by the time the system moves out Friday.

Some areas could receive even higher amounts, especially across east-central and southeast Oklahoma where locally heavy rainfall is possible.

The majority of the rainfall is expected from Wednesday night through Friday morning, which is when the localized flooding threat will be greatest.

The weekend looks much better!

Once the storm system and cold front move away, conditions will gradually improve.

Skies should slowly clear over the weekend, with cool nights and pleasant afternoons expected. The cooler, drier pattern is expected to continue into next week.

If you’re headed to the Tulsa State Fair, the fair could start off wet and stormy, but the outlook improves considerably afterward, with much more comfortable weather expected for outdoor activities.