TULSA, OKLA — We're are tracking a disturbance isolated showers and a few thunderstorms possible this morning and afternoon.
Most of these storms are expected to remain elevated, meaning they form higher in the atmosphere and are less likely to produce widespread severe weather. However, brief heavy rain, lightning, and gusty winds are still possible.
Conditions should temporarily quiet down Saturday afternoon and evening with highs in the upper 80s and lows remaining warm in the 70s.
Storm chances on Sunday are expected to stay fairly low. Most thunderstorm development is expected farther west along a dryline in western Oklahoma and Kansas.
However, if any storms survive long enough to move into eastern Oklahoma Sunday afternoon or evening, they could become severe. Large hail, damaging winds, and isolated tornadoes cannot be ruled out with the strongest storms.
Highs for Sunday return to the upper 80s.
The weather pattern is expected to become much more active Monday into Tuesday as a strong storm system moves into the central Plains.
These ingredients could combine to create a significant severe weather setup Monday afternoon and evening, especially across eastern Oklahoma.
The biggest threats may include large hail, damaging straight-line winds, tornadoes and heavy rainfall.
There is still some uncertainty regarding how quickly storms develop and how widespread they become, but confidence is increasing that Monday could bring the highest severe weather risk of the forecast period.
Highs Monday warm to the upper 80s with lows better in the 60s.
The cold front is expected to slide south through the area Monday night into Tuesday, keeping additional chances for thunderstorms in the forecast.
Some storms Tuesday could still become severe, particularly across southeast Oklahoma. Heavy rainfall may also lead to localized flooding concerns.
Rain and thunderstorm chances are expected to continue through much of next week as moisture returns to the region. While widespread severe weather may become less likely after Tuesday, occasional storms and periods of rain are still expected through the end of the week.
Continue to stay weather-aware, especially Monday and Tuesday when the potential for severe storms appears greatest.
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