***A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect for parts of northeast Oklahoma near the Kansas border until 7 this morning.***
Storms developed overnight across southeast Kansas and are moving southeast along a cold front. The storms have created an outflow boundary — a surge of cooler air ahead of the main line — which is helping reduce the tornado risk. Because of this setup, the tornado threat is expected to stay very low.
The strongest storms are expected to reach the I-44 corridor around sunrise Tuesday, give or take about an hour.
The line of storms is expected to gradually weaken as it pushes south of I-44, but pockets of strong to severe weather could still develop through the morning. As storms move into southeast Oklahoma later today, daytime heating could help some storms regain strength, with damaging winds remaining the primary concern.
Heavy rainfall is also possible. Most locations are expected to receive between one-half inch and one inch of rain, but isolated areas could see close to two inches where the heaviest storms track.
Behind the cold front, much cooler air will settle into the region. Temperatures Tuesday and Wednesday will drop into the 60s and 70s, with overnight lows falling into the 50s and 60s by Wednesday morning.
The unsettled weather pattern is expected to continue through the rest of the week and into the weekend. Several weather disturbances will keep daily chances for showers and thunderstorms in the forecast.
While widespread severe weather is not expected through at least Thursday, the atmosphere will remain very moist, increasing the risk for periods of moderate to heavy rainfall. One round of heavier rain could arrive Thursday evening into Thursday night, with another possible Friday night into Saturday morning.
There is also a limited chance for severe storms Friday evening and overnight as another system approaches from the west. More details on the timing and intensity of those storms will become clearer later this week.
Cloud cover, rain chances, and northerly winds will help keep temperatures below average through Thursday before conditions gradually warm back closer to normal for Memorial Day weekend.
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