TULSA, OKLA- — A few spotty showers, perhaps some thunder will be possible tonight. Overall severe threat looks low.
Severe storms will develop in western Texas and western Oklahoma this evening and will make a run toward Green Country in the morning hours Friday. These storms will be weakening as they move in, but may still be capable of strong wind gusts and perhaps a brief tornado or two. We'll be monitoring closely just in case.
The question Friday afternoon and evening is whether or not we see redevelopment of a few isolated severe storms in the late afternoon and evening. This will be highly dependent on whether Friday morning storms limit afternoon destabilization. If we do clear out and destabilize, then the severe risk will go up with a wind, hail, and tornado threat. If we don’t, the cap could hold and PM storms could struggle to develop. The Friday PM severe threat is highly conditional to what happens Friday morning.
On Saturday, we'll see the potential for higher-end severe weather (tornado, hail, wind threats) across the central and southern Plains. Those risks will be highest near/west of I-35 in the afternoon to early evening. We'll need to watch how those storms evolve as they move in our direction Saturday evening/night, but our risk for severe weather locally should go up Saturday night. As more storms develop, the flash flood threat may also go up with a continued severe threat overnight Saturday into Sunday morning.
It's possible a few severe storms develop again Sunday afternoon/evening before we finally clear out Sunday night. Similar to Friday, these storms will be highly dependent on whether the storms Sunday morning limit possible afternoon redevelopment.
Have a plan in place the next few days just in case any severe storms or flooding rains affect your area. Not everyone will see severe storms, but the potential will be there.
**Keep in mind, we'll continue to adjust the forecast as we get closer and new data comes in. Stay tuned for the latest details**
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