TULSA, OKLA — Tuesday will start off relatively calm. The morning hours should be mild, breezy, and mostly dry, with only a small chance of isolated showers. Most areas will likely stay dry through midday. Highs in the 80s.
By the afternoon, conditions in the atmosphere will begin to change. A weather system developing over the Rocky Mountains will help trigger thunderstorms along a dry line across central Oklahoma. Those storms are expected to move east later in the day.
Storm timing looks to be late afternoon for central Oklahoma and around sunset for eastern Oklahoma.
If storms develop and remain isolated, they could become supercells, capable of producing large hail, damaging wind gusts and isolated tornadoes.
The highest severe weather risk appears to be near and north of Interstate 44.
Storms may continue overnight, but the severe threat should gradually decrease as they move farther east.
Overnight temperatures will stay mild, generally in the mid-60s.
Wednesday could bring a similar setup for severe weather.
The same storm system influencing the area today will move across the Plains. The atmosphere is expected to remain very unstable, with plenty of moisture and wind energy to support strong storms.
Possible timing looks to be some scattered storms developing during the morning and afternoon. By late afternoon and evening, the main round of severe storms may form again along the dry line in central Oklahoma and move east.
These storms could again produce large hail, damaging winds and isolated tornadoes.
However, exactly how Wednesday unfolds will depend partly on how Tuesday night’s storms evolve.
Thursday should be quieter, though still warm and humid.
Afternoon highs are expected to reach the low to mid-80s, and breezy south winds will continue.
A few isolated showers remain possible, but widespread severe weather is not expected.
Another strong storm system is forecast to move in late Friday.
This system could trigger another round of showers and thunderstorms, some of which may become severe Friday afternoon and evening.
Specific details are still uncertain, but this system could again bring strong thunderstorms, heavy rain and the potential for severe weather.
A cold front will push through the region late Friday night into Saturday morning, bringing an end to storm chances by Saturday afternoon.
Behind the front, conditions will turn cooler and drier.
Early next week should stay mostly quiet, although a weak weather disturbance could bring a small chance of rain by Monday afternoon or evening.
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