Morning Storms
A strong low-level jet stream overhead is helping scattered showers and thunderstorms develop across parts of Oklahoma early Friday. These storms are expected to move northeast through the morning.
Some of this activity could move into northeast Oklahoma, especially along and northwest of I-44. However, instability will be decreasing through sunrise, which should limit the severe threat.
Main early-morning threats include small to marginally large hail and gusty winds.
Current projections suggest these morning storms will weaken as they move east and northeast.
Afternoon and Evening Severe Weather Risk
There is still some uncertainty about how morning storms could influence the afternoon setup. If clouds and leftover boundaries from morning storms remain, they could affect where new storms form later in the day.
There may be a brief lull in storm activity early Friday afternoon, before temperatures climb into the 70s and the atmosphere becomes unstable again.
By mid to late afternoon, a zone of increased instability and moisture is expected to set up across eastern Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas. As this happens, new thunderstorms may develop—possibly first to the southwest before spreading across the region.
Storms that develop later Friday will have a higher chance of becoming severe.
Possible severe threats Friday afternoon and evening:
- Large hail (Up to golf ball)
- Damaging wind gusts (70 mph)
- Tornadoes (Moderate threat)
These storms will develop ahead of a cold front moving through the Central Plains.
Storms Continue Friday Night
Thunderstorms and the severe weather threat may continue into Friday night as the cold front pushes southeast across the region.
The front is expected to reach southeast Oklahoma and west-central Arkansas by early Saturday morning. Storms should gradually weaken from northwest to southeast late Friday night into Saturday before ending later in the day.
Heavy Rain Potential
In addition to severe weather, heavy rainfall is also possible. Moisture levels in the atmosphere are unusually high for early March.
Rainfall totals through Friday night could range from:
- ½ inch for many areas
- Up to 2+ inches in localized spots
If heavier rain falls over the same areas that recently saw rainfall, localized flooding could develop, especially across southeast Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas.
Temperature Outlook
- Friday Afternoon: Mostly in the 70s
- Friday Night / Saturday Morning: 40s behind the front, 50s ahead of it
- Saturday Afternoon: Upper 50s and lower 60
- Sunday Afternoon: Upper 60s and lower 70s
Weekend Forecast
Once the cold front moves out, high pressure will bring cooler and drier weather for the weekend.
Expect quieter conditions Saturday and Sunday with lower temperatures and less humidity.
Next Week: More Storm Chances
Another storm system may move into the Southern Plains early next week.
- Monday: Chance for showers and storms returning
- Tuesday–Wednesday: Better chances for thunderstorms as another cold front approaches
Depending on how this system develops, severe weather could again become possible. We’ll continue monitoring the setup through the weekend.
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