***FLOOD WATCH FOR NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS UNTIL 1 PM MONDAY.***
Widely scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected to continue this morning, mainly north and east of Tulsa.
Some storms could become severe, producing large hail, damaging wind gusts, flash flooding, and a few tornadoes. While the tornado threat remains relatively low, it is not zero.
Localized rainfall totals of 4 to 6 inches or more are possible in narrow corridors near the Oklahoma-Kansas-Missouri-Arkansas border region by sunrise.
Thunderstorms should gradually weaken and move out of the area by late morning or early afternoon.
As skies begin clearing, temperatures will quickly climb into the upper 80s and near 90 degrees. Combined with very humid conditions left behind by recent rainfall, heat index values are expected to exceed 100 degrees, with some locations reaching 105 degrees.
A strengthening ridge of high pressure will bring several days of hot and humid weather through the middle of the week.
Tuesday will be mostly sunny, with morning lows in the upper 70s and afternoon highs in the low 90s. South winds of 10 to 20 mph will continue, and heat index values may reach 105 degrees.
Wednesday looks similarly hot, with lots of sunshine and highs again in the low 90s. South winds will increase to 15 to 25 mph, while heat index values remain near 105 degrees.
Heat advisories and/or other heat-related headlines may be needed during this period as dangerous humidity combines with above-normal temperatures.
The weather pattern becomes more active again beginning Thursday as a series of disturbances and frontal boundaries move into the region.
Thursday will feature partly cloudy skies and another hot afternoon, with highs in the low 90s. Shower and thunderstorm chances are expected to increase later in the day as a cold front approaches.
Additional showers and thunderstorms are possible Friday. Temperatures should ease slightly, with highs in the upper 80s and heat index values closer to the upper 90s.
Unsettled weather may continue through the weekend with periodic chances for showers and thunderstorms.
Current projections show highs in the low 90s on Saturday before cooling into the mid-80s on Sunday. Overnight lows are expected to remain in the low 70s.
Long-range guidance suggests a stronger push of cooler Canadian air could arrive late in the weekend or early next week, potentially bringing temperatures below normal for mid-June. Confidence remains low at this time, but we will continue to monitor.
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