Tulsa summer forecast? What you can expect

Posted at 8:45 PM, May 02, 2016
and last updated 2016-05-03 11:52:52-04

TULSA - Summer doesn't officially begin until June 20, but for many it's already the season for planning trips and vacations.

So what can we expect from the forecast?

First of all, we can say that there is only a five percent chance of us repeating the summer of 2015 - Green Country's 15th wettest summer ever.

How do we know? The Lezak Recurring Cycle theory shows us how many storms will repeat, and how often.

The LRC says the weather pattern is cycling around 50 days, a cycle that will continue through summer. Five storms are cycling with that pattern and we will see each storm twice.

We know the waters of the pacific ocean are rapidly cooling, and El Nino is fading and will be in transition this summer. This will cause the jet stream to enter its summer doldrums sooner, which means fewer cold fronts and fewer thunderstorms. Historically, that means a gradual change to drier than hotter weather.

The stats back it up. Following El Nino in 1983, Tulsa experienced its driest summer ever.

And we've had three of our top 15 warmest summers when El Nino fades.

Knowing that information, here is the summer forecast -- from June 1 to August 30 -- a month-by-month breakdown.

June - Expect below average rainfall and warmer than average temperatures.

July - Above average rainfall and warmer than average temperatures. Look for the July 4th holiday weekend to start off with thunderstorms on Saturday and the first half of Sunday. But the weekend including the 4th will end dry and very warm.

August - El Nino will be gone and this means very few storms and increasing heat. Look for a very hot and dry August.

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