Brett's Weather Blog: Using a long range weather pattern theory to forecast the 2013-2014 winter

Happy Thanksgiving!

For Thanksgiving, I thought I would let you feast on this forecast! It's my Winter Forecast for Tulsa and the rest of Green Country.

It's not a forecast derived from the Farmers' Almanac or the National Weather Service. This is my forecast with the help of a forecasting tool discovered by a colleague of mine, who happens to also be my former Chief Meteorologist in Kansas City, Gary Lezak.

The long range forecasting tool is called the LRC, or Lezak Recurring Cycle. Gary discovered this pattern cycling theory about a decade ago and has been studying it and using it to make successful long range forecasts ever since.

Here is how it works.

Every year, around the beginning of October and running through the middle of November a long range, long wave weather pattern begins to develop. These "Long Wave" patterns will begin to cycle at a range of days that will help to determine when storms will move through Green Country. Last year, the pattern was around 50 to 53 days. 

What will the pattern be this year? Right Now, the pattern appears to be around 57 to 60 days and seems to be setting up to give us two possible storm tracks.

Let's look at Storm Track #1:

Mobile users can view it here --

Storm Track Pattern #1 is a pattern where big lows form off the California coast and slowly eject into the Central Plains. This pattern will give Green Country some warmer than normal days and also the opportunity to have some wet rain storms.

Storm Track #2:

Mobile users can view it here --

The second long wave pattern that has dominated the early days of Autumn has been a huge trough over the upper Midwest into the Great Lakes. When this pattern develops, Tulsa has been hit by some sudden cold blasts. It's happened twice already. Did you notice?

One hit around Oct. 18 until Oct. 25. A second one hit last week, Nov. 22 through the 26. We should get hit by at least two very cold blasts this Winter.

When we transition between "Storm Track 1" and "Storm Track 2", that is when we have the chance for enough cold air to be around to see snow or worse freezing rain.  

There are some other influences that affect the LRC, such as the Arctic Oscillation or El Nino or La Nina.  This year, at the moment, all three major indices are neutral but of the three, the Arctic Oscillation will likely have the biggest impact.  

My Winter Weather Forecast for Tulsa & Green Country:

Mobile users can view it here --

To recap:

Above normal snowfall, so more than 10 inches of snow.

Some mild stretches of weather but also some very cold days. It doesn't get down to zero very often around Green Country but it may do it at least once this year.  Averaged out, the winter temps should be slightly below average.  

I will post this on Facebook and Twitter. Email me and let me know what you think.

Have a Happy & safe Thanksgiving weekend,


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