Welcome to Brett's Weather Blog. I will try and post something everyday that will add to the forecast that we show on our Storm Shield Weather Forecasts at 5, 6 and 10 p.m. Today's entry will give you an idea of what this blog will be like. But there will be days when I add a few pictures or talk about events in which we are involved. But no matter the topic, there will always be a weather element. Most of the time it will be local, but when its warranted, we will talk about big national stories; i,e, tornado outbreaks, snowstorms, even geologic events such as earthquakes.
It is a warm afternoon across northeastern Oklahoma. High temperatures topped out in the low 90s in many spots.
It will be warm overnight with many areas staying in the mid to upper 60s.
The reason it is going to be so warm today is simple. Check out the map of 850mb temperatures. 850mb is roughly 5-thousand feet off the surface of the earth.
I have outlined an area where the 850 temps exceeded 18°C this afternoon. Winds aloft help to mix that air to the surface and as a result we warmed up into the 90s in many. This scenario will be repeated tomorrow. However, the warmest air retreats slightly to the west and we will have more cloud cover by the end of the day. Regardless it should be a warm day.
Then Saturday, we have a tricky forecast. Meteorologist George Flickinger and I have talked about how cloud cover will greatly impact how warm it is on Saturday. It appears the clouds will hold temps in the 70s as a cold front arrives.
Rainfall amounts are debatable. This morning's NAM kept most of the beneficial rain south of Tulsa. The GFS was more generous in spreading the rain across the entire area. Either way, the timing of rain appears to be afternoon, again overnight and perhaps some off and on showers Sunday. The weekend won't be a washout, but if you are going to the State Fair you might want to pack a rain poncho.