Brett's Weather Blog: Thanksgiving is two weeks away but the forecast is anything but clear

Good morning,

I was going to take a sneak peak at Thanksgiving in yesterday's blog. You see yesterday, one of the computer models had a huge storm passing through Texas on Thanksgiving. A storm that would bring snow  to most of Green country along with your Thanksgiving meal. But something told me to wait a day and see what that same computer model had to say today. Guess what, the storm is gone, all gone, bye-bye. Boy am I glad I waited. In fact, it looks really warm on Thanksgiving day, according to today's run of the model.

So let's have some fun. I will post yesterday's computer model for Thanksgiving day. Then I will post today and wait until you see the vast difference.

Mobile users can view the map here --

Those black funny looking things are snow flakes. Yes, in yesterday's version it was cold enough to snow and it appeared Thanksgiving 2013 would be windy and bitter cold.

Now look at the latest map from that very same computer model, which by the way is the GFS or Global Forecasting System model. You might recall hearing about this model after Hurricane Sandy last year. It was the so called "American" model that was out-forecasted by the "European" model. 

Mobile users can view the map here --

Wow, not even close!  If this model is right, then Thanksgiving Day is breezy, warm with a chance for scattered showers or maybe a few thunderstorms. 

I almost put a graphic on TV last night, saying Thanksgiving Day was going to be cold. Boy I would be eating those words today. Here is the lesson, When you believe and take the computer models at face value we call that "Model-itis" That would have been a severe case of model-itis. That's why its important for meteorologists to compare several sources or models and to wait a few days before jumping to conclusions. 

So what will Thanksgiving Day really be like. Well its way too early to tell for sure but the weather pattern is now cycling around 48-days. So the October 11th storm which brought us some light rain followed by a cold air outbreak will be returning in around November 27th or 28th (Thanksgiving). So, given what I have seen in the long-term data, I would say there is a chance of rain on Thanksgiving with mild temperatures turning colder over through the Holiday weekend.  Keep an eye on "Black Friday" there could some cold air sticking around that could help produce some snow flurries.

Have a great Thursday !


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