The Spring 2014 Forecast! Drum-roll please...
Did you think I would give it away in the first sentence? I can't without first telling you how I came up with the forecast for the rest of April, May and June.
I use a method called the LRC or Lezaks' Recurring Cycle Theory. Kansas City Meteorologist Gary Lezak came up with it about a decade ago. Gary discovered that every autumn a new and unique weather pattern sets up and begins to cycle. The pattern typically establishes itself from early October into the middle of November. This year's cycle has been right around 60 days.
Let me show you an example of how the cycling theory works. First of all look at a map called the 500 millibar chart from Feb. 3.
Five hundred millibars is about half way up through the atmosphere or about 25,000. This is often referred to as the Jet Stream. Why look at this map? Because this is where the long waves are located. Long waves are like big waves in the Ocean. They move over a large space and waves often repeat over and over. From these long waves in the atmosphere, smaller waves or storms are formed. You can see a storm west of Tulsa on Feb. 3. This storm brought us almost three inches of snow. Now I want you to look at a 500 millibar chart from April 3.
Can you see the similarity? The long wave is almost in the exact same place as it was on Feb. 3. This time around, a stronger smaller wave formed, and we had a severe weather day here in Green Country. Hail, the size of tennis balls hit Checotah.
Now look at a map from March 3.
It snowed March 3 in Tulsa and we had a shot of cold air behind. Using the LRC, then we can predict that somewhere around May 1 or 2, we will have another storm, probably not snow this time around, but it could bring strong or severe thunderstorms, followed by a couple of much cooler than average days to start May.
If you go back to October and look at the pattern, you will notice that between the bigger storms, we have long stretches of dry weather. That is due in part to a mostly persistent pattern of northwest winds. So what can we take away from this? How about a Spring pattern. Here goes.
1. Rainfall -- Below Average The average rainfall for April, May & June is 14.42" We will probably be around 8-10" of rainfall for the period for Tulsa. Probably higher amounts east of Highway 69.
2. Temperatures -- Below average We have experienced cooler than average temperatures since November, there is no reason with the current pattern that will change. We could have a late season frost in early May and we may not have prolonged warm weather until the second half of June.
3. Severe Weather Season -- Below average Watch for set-ups around May 3, May 14, May 17, May 19 and May 23 and June 2. The best chances for widespread severe weather will come with the May 3 and June 2 storms.
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There is your Spring 2014 forecast. Thanks for reading the blog. We debuted a weather graphics system this week. It includes a new Storm Shield radar. The radar will allow us to analyze storms with more detail to give you more warning when severe weather strikes.
Have a great weekend!
Download our Storm Shield Weather app. You can set alerts to notify you of all types of storms. Available for iPhone and Android. If you're reading this story on your phone, click this link for iPhone - http://bit.ly/kjrhstormshield - and click this link for Android - http://bit.ly/stormshieldandroid