Bretts Weather Blog: October was drier and cooler than normal but what about November

Happy Halloween,

I thought I would take this opportunity on the last day of October to look back at the month that was and look ahead to November to see if anything creepy-crawly weather was headed our way. 

A Rainy End

Lets start with a look at our recent two day rain event.  Wow, it rained hard at times across Green Country yesterday and overnight.  Below is our Double Doppler 2 Nexrad estimate of rainfall across the region.  Notice the bright green swath just southeast of Tulsa. Mobile readers can see the image at http://bit.ly/1cr8tkR.

More than four inches of rain was reported in Porter and just southeast of Bixby.  We had several reports of three plus inches of rainfall including, Porter, Haskell & Wagoner & Locust Grove.  Tulsa had around 1.09 inches of rain.

Despite the nice, soaking rainfall much of Green Country will finish the month of October with below average rainfall. 

A Look Back

Since its the last day of the month and we have already experience our high temperature for the day we can take all the daytime highs for the month find our average.  The average daytime high this month was 72-degrees.  The average morning low was right at 50-degrees.  Our warmest day was 88 back on October 4th and the coldest morning occured twice on the 19th and 25th when the temperature dipped to a frosty 34-degrees.

A Look Ahead

Now its time to look ahead to November.  What I noticed looking at the climate data is just how much cooler it will be by the end of the month.  Check out my chart above.  The bars on the left are the normal daytime high and low for the 1st of the month.  The Bars on the right are the normal highs and low for the 30th of the month.

November is a drier month compared to October and in November, historically speaking, we average 0.7 inches of snow.  A scant amount but a reminder that Winter sometimes comes early.  So what about this month.  Here is how I see the month shaping up in general.

A November Prediction:

The first half of the month will bring two storms to Green Country.  Both spreading rain and a few thunderstorms across the region.  Behind the second storm a very cool air mass will take over for the middle of the month.

The second half of the month has potential for two more, maybe three storm systems to bring us more rain,  Each one of these storms would be preceded by a warm up followed by sharply colder air mass behind.  One of these could be around for the Thanksgiving holiday.  Could that one end with a few snow flurries creeping and crawling through the air?  Oh, such a spooky thought for Halloween.

Happy Halloween,

Brett 

 

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