It's Friday and we are headed for a challenging forecast this weekend.
We know its going to rain, at some point tonight, tomorrow and Sunday. But here's the challenge, when will it rain?
A cold front will move into northeast Oklahoma tonight. When it gets here, we'll see a few thunderstorms, likely not severe, the threat is very limited. That's the easy part. Why? Because the front stalls, but where it stalls determines the rest of Saturday's forecast. Below is where I think the front will be Saturday afternoon. Click the image for a bigger version. Mobile readers should click http://bit.ly/GUu7De
If it stalls here, then rain and thunderstorms will continue, off and on south of Green country over southeastern Oklahoma. So it appears, any plans you have outside Saturday afternoon should be A-OK as long as you don't mind a lot of cloud cover.
The challenge for Sunday's forecast is once again timing. Warmer air starts to race northward, back into Green Country.
These so called "warm air advection" thunderstorms pose another timing challenge as they often race through an area and produce some quick heavy downpours. But, they can come on rounds, so we may have periods of rain and thunderstorms Sunday.
THE EASY PART
Believe it not Monday and Tuesday's forecast are easy compared to the weekend.
Look at the surface set up for Monday below. Mobile readers can see it here http://bit.ly/1eeqQKQ
Ample moisture, a strengthening storm, and a cold front will come together to likely produce heavy rainfall in parts of NE Oklahoma, Monday morning continuing into Tuesday morning. We could pick up a month's worth of rain with this storm.
October averages 3.93" of rain for the entire month. We could come close to that. One of the computer models is forecast 2.5 to 3 inches of rain with the Monday-Tuesday storm. By the way, the record rainfall for October 14th (Monday) is 1.85 inches while October 15th (Tuesday) is 2.12 inches of rain.
Watch 2 News Works for You at 5, 6 & 10. I will have the latest Futurecast, timeline and possible rainfall amounts.
Have a great weekend!
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