Everyone wants to know: When are we getting a break in the heat and when will decent rain return?
The two week outlook suggests a few answers.
But first, a quick reminder about the current. Our temperatures and weather pattern are and will continue to be dominated by the persistent upper level High pressure area. Think of the High as a giant weight pressing down on top of us.
The High suppresses cloud development, and keeps large rain areas away. A High pressure area sets up each summer in the United States, and it's more intense this year. The High has barely moved while expanding its influence.
Regarding our forecast, toward the end of this week the center of the High looks to slide to our east. This means that Oklahoma will be on the western flow. Slightly hotter afternoons should result toward the weekend. Our neighbors in Texas will benefit with tropical-like batches of rain moving from east to west around the High.
Looking ahead to next week, forecast computer models suggest the High could be located either on top of Oklahoma and/or to our west or northwest. The farther west the High moves, the better our local rain chances.
If the High does indeed slide westward, then weak cool fronts could slide into Oklahoma. Rain and thunderstorms would be possible.
Again, this rain chance is dependant on where the High parks itself. If it sits overhead, then no rain for Green Country.
For us to see an end to this drought and cooler weather, the High needs to move away and/or weaken; however, neither are likely. If anything, the drought conditions already ongoing in Texas and Oklahoma should help anchor the High in our region.
Even with the possibility of the High sliding somewhat westward and weak cool fronts for the last week of July, no significant cooling is expected. Highs near and over 100° will persist through next week. Hotter than normal temperatures are also likely for the beginning of August.
If you want cooler weather, I can't provide much optimism! But hopes are for at least low rain chances next week as the High tries to slide westward. C'mon weak cool fronts!
Try to stay cool. George
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