Some look to the wooly caterpillar, some note the thickness of hair on horses, and other swear by the persimmon seeds as a way to predict winter. I’ve had the Farmer’s Almanac quoted to me as if it were scripture, and been told that all you need to do is notice how active the squirrels are at gathering nuts to know how bad winter will be.
Not nearly as entertaining, is the Climate Prediction Center’s outlook. They forecast a near normal weather for September. There will be some very wet days and some very cool weather, but when you average the month’s weather, they predict equal chances for rainfall to be above or below normal.
The outlook for Oct., Nov., and Dec. is nearly just as vague. Though the area for above normal precipitation does move closer to us, they are still predicting a “normal” weather.
A significant driving factor for global weather patters is the sea surface temperatures in the eastern tropical Pacific Ocean. This season we will be in a strengthening El Nino pattern. Which can, but not always, produce a more active winter for us with above normal rain, snow, and ice.
If all these conflicting opinions have your head spinning, go get yourself an onion. According to folklore you can use it to predict winter:
Onion skins very thin,
Mild Winter coming in;
Onion skins thick and tough,
Coming Winter cold and rough.
If you have a weather question for Dan, send it to:
askdan@kjrh.com
