Accurate Forecasts - Oct. 5, 2007

I will be the very first to admit that the weather we get does not always match the weather I forecast. Weather has never been, nor will it ever be, and exact science. We do the best we can but at least our accuracy is improving. Today we have more data to analyze than we did in previous years. The tools and techniques have improved dramatically and most of the time the forecasts are correct, but not always. The atmosphere is in perpetual motion and the data is constantly changing. Forecasting is like doing a long math problem where the numbers keep changing. An independent company tracks of all of the television station’s forecasts. Highs, lows, winds, sky cover, and precipitation were all recorded. They compared the forecasts to what actually happened and for the past two years our station was named the “most accurate”. After doing this for 25 years now, I have noticed there three different types of forecasters. Type one is the “worst case scenario”. Every upcoming system is going to be bad or extreme. They try to scare people into watching the news. I always thought that storms were scary enough. There is no need to hype the weather just for ratings. Type two changes the forecast with every computer model run. If the forecast was for 70 degrees and new data says 85 then they change the forecast. This happens a lot with younger meteorologists. An old and and very good meteorologists once old me about the computer’s solution of the atmosphere, “it is guidance not gospel.” Type three forecasts the weather and uses a combination of persistence (what you forecast the day before), the latest data available, and your gut. That’s right, sometimes you just have to use some common sense. I guess I fall into this category. No, I’ll continue to get the forecast wrong from time to time, but most folks understand that. We are often told, “I sure wish I had your job and could be wrong and still keep my job.” I remind them that no one is right all the time. But when I am wrong, everyone knows about it! If you have a weather question for Dan, send it to: askdan@kjrh.com